A line chart showing daily new estimated COVID-19 infections from the ICL model in the United States, displaying mean estimates, upper and lower uncertainty bounds, and confirmed cases from March 2020 to May 2023.

Line chart illustrating estimated and confirmed daily COVID-19 infections in the US, with a peak in early 2022.

Daily new estimated COVID-19 infections from the ICL model, United States Estimates of the true number of infections. The "upper" and "lower" lines show the bounds of a 95% uncertainty interval. For comparison, confirmed cases are infections that have been confirmed with a test. Our World in Data 4 million 3.5 million 3 million 2.5 million 2 million 1.5 million 1 million 500,000 0 Mar 1, 2020 Feb 24, 2021 Sep 12, 2021 Mar 31, 2022 May 21, 2023 Upper Mean estimate Lower Confirmed cases Data source: Imperial College London (2022); World Health Organization (2026) Note: This chart shows the model estimates dated 25 December 2022. OurWorldInData.org/covid-models | CC BY