A bubble chart showing a positive correlation between county fertility rates and Donald Trump's 2024 vote share.

A scatter plot where each dot represents a US county. The x-axis shows Trump's vote share in 2024, and the y-axis shows the general fertility rate. Red dots represent counties where Trump won 50% or more, and blue dots represent counties where he won under 50%. A trend line shows that as Trump's vote share increases, fertility rates also tend to increase.

Higher-fertility counties voted Trump County GFR (2025) by Trump vote · dot size = county population 140 r = +0.51 weighted (+0.39 unweighted) · n = 2,685 Trump 50% or more 120 Trump under 50% 100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Trump vote share, 2024 (%) General fertility rate (births / 1,000 women 15-44), 2025 50% county pop @smirkley Source: U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 (births + women 15-44); 2024 county results (tonmcg/Fox News). Dot colour: red = Trump 50%+ of the vote, blue = under 50%. Circle area proportional to 2025 population; r and line population-weighted.